[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111083-en":3,"doc-seo-111083-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111083,1099513958762,"Logic","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/1000023916a998db790?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1784791008015729253",8,"Research & Report","Bangladesh: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - Low Risk Assessment","Bangladesh remains at a low risk of external and overall debt distress, with debt-carrying capacity unchanged from the previous debt sustainability analysis. Under the baseline, external and overall debt indicators stay below their thresholds. A standard stress test causes a temporary breach of the external debt-to-export ratio threshold, but the short duration and low magnitude are discounted through judgment. Downside risks include persistent inflation, a rising interest burden, revenue mobilization limits, slower trading-partner growth, delayed structural reforms, FX pressures, higher NPLs, and climate-related events.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nMathew Verghis and Manuela Francisco (IDA) and Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf and Boileau Yeyinou Loko (IMF)  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| BANGLADESH: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Tool not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes |\n\nBangladesh remains at a low risk of external and overall debt distress. Bangladesh’s debt-carrying capacity is unchanged from the previous debt sustainability analysis (DSA) . 1 External and overall debt indicators are below their respective thresholds under the baseline. Under a standard stress test, the present value of debt-to-export ratio temporarily breaches the threshold of external debt sustainability indicator. This short duration breach of low magnitude is discounted via judgement. Despite increased external borrowing projected in the near-term, favorable debt dynamics in the medium term keep the public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining path. Risks are tilted to the downside and include persistent inflation, increasing interest burden, revenue mobilization constraints, slowdown in major trading partners, slow implementation of macro-critical structural reforms, amplified foreign exchange (FX) pressures, elevated non-performing loans (NPLs), and climate related events.  \n1 Bangladesh’s Composite Index is estimated at 2.86 and is based on IMF’s October 2023 WEO and WB’s 2022 CPIA. The debt carrying capacity remains medium.  \n1. Total public and publicly guaranteed debt in Bangladesh stood at US$166.7 billion in FY23, around 39.8 percent of GDP (Text Table 1 and Text Figure 1) .2 The majority of public debt accumulated over the last decade is domestic and denominated in local currency. In FY23, domestic debt was at 55.6 percent of PPG debt stock. Domestic debt service payments amounted to US$7 .8 billion in FY23 (1 .9 percent of GDP) . External debt was at 44.4 percent of PPG debt stock. External debt service payments in FY23 comprised of the payments to multilateral creditor of US$2 .1 billion (0 . 5 percent of GDP) and bilateral creditor of US$ 0.9 billion (around 0.2 percent of GDP) . Of which, debt service payments to Paris Club and non-Paris Club creditors amounted to US$0 .5 billion and US$ 0.4 billion, respectively.  \n\n| Public and Publicly Guartanteed Debt\u003Cbr>(In percent of GDP) |  |  |  | Domestic Debt by Type, FY2023\u003Cbr>(In percent of total)\u003Cbr>Others including GPF 9\u003Cbr>Guarantees 4\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Debt from NSCs 37\u003Cbr>Treasury bills 12\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Treasury bonds 37\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Source: Bangladesh authorities. Sukuk, 2 |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 45\u003Cbr>40\u003Cbr>35\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>25\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>15\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>0 |  |  |  |  |  |  |\n| FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 Sources: Data from authorities and IMF staff estimates. |  | FY 22 | FY 23\u003Cbr>Est. |  |  |  |\n| External Debt\u003Cbr>(In percent of GDP) |  |  |  | External Debt by Creditor, FY2023\u003Cbr>(In percent of total)\u003Cbr>Guarantees 9 |  | Multilateral 52 |\n| 25\u003Cbr>20\u003Cbr>15\u003Cbr>10\u003Cbr>5\u003Cbr>0 |  |  |  |  |  |  |\n|  |  |  |  | Short-term debt 3\u003Cbr>Bilateral 34 |  |  |\n| FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 Sources: Data from authorities and IMF staff estimates. |  | FY 22 | FY 23\u003Cbr>Est. |  |  |  |\n|  |  |  |  | Source: Bangladesh authorities. |  |  |\n\n2 Fiscal year in Bangladesh starts in July and ends in June.  \n|  |  | Debt Stock |  |  | Debt Service |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  |  | FY2023 |  |  | FY2023 |  |\n|  | (In million of US$) | (Percent total debt) | (Percent GDP) | (In million of US$) | (Percent total debt) | (Percent GDP) |\n| Total | 166,655 | 100.0 | 39.8 | 23,325 | 14.0 | 5.6 |\n| External PPG | 74,007 | 44.4 | 17.7 | 3,886 | 2.3 | 0.9 |\n| Medi","cbCaiviifVtkMc1B","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiviifVtkMc1B","pdf",814864,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Risk of Debt Distress Assessment\n## Baseline Results and Threshold Breaches\n## Debt Dynamics and Key Risks\n# Debt Stock and Debt Service Snapshot\n## Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt (FY2023)\n## External Debt by Creditor and Domestic Debt Composition","[{\"question\":\"What is Bangladesh’s assessed risk level for debt distress?\",\"answer\":\"Bangladesh is assessed as having a low risk of external debt distress and a low risk of overall debt distress.\"},{\"question\":\"Which debt indicator temporarily breaches a threshold in the stress test?\",\"answer\":\"The present value of the debt-to-export ratio temporarily breaches the threshold for the external debt sustainability indicator under a standard stress test.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors drive the downside risks to debt sustainability?\",\"answer\":\"Downside risks include persistent inflation, a higher interest burden, revenue mobilization constraints, slower growth in major trading partners, slow implementation of macro-critical reforms, amplified FX pressures, elevated non-performing loans, and climate-related events.\"}]",1784488500,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"bangladesh-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk-assessment","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/bangladesh-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-low-risk-assessment/111083/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What is Bangladesh’s assessed risk level for debt distress?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Bangladesh is assessed as having a low risk of external debt distress and a low risk of overall debt distress.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Which debt indicator temporarily breaches a threshold in the stress test?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"The present value of the debt-to-export ratio temporarily breaches the threshold for the external debt sustainability indicator under a standard stress test.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What factors drive the downside risks to debt sustainability?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Downside risks include persistent inflation, a higher interest burden, revenue mobilization constraints, slower growth in major trading partners, slow implementation of macro-critical reforms, amplified FX pressures, elevated non-performing loans, and climate-related 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