[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-111606-en":3,"doc-seo-111606-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},111606,7971461740886,"Theodore","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_3d24733baf745e90a7e4bdd5f77d97b2",8,"Research & Report","BANGLADESH: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS - Key Debt Distress Risk Summary","Bangladesh’s joint Bank-Fund debt sustainability analysis concludes that both external and overall risk of debt distress remains low. Baseline indicators keep external and overall debt metrics below policy thresholds, while a standard stress test shows a temporary breach in the present value of the debt-to-export ratio, discounted under guidelines. Despite projected near-term external borrowing, medium-term dynamics support a declining public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP path. Downside risks include FX pressures, inflation, higher interest burdens, revenue mobilization constraints, weaker partner growth, delays in macro-critical reforms, elevated NPLs, and climate-related shocks.","Public Disclosure  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nApproved by:  \nManuela Francisco and Mathew Verghis (IDA) and Sanjaya Panth and Boileau Yeyinou Loko (IMF) .  \nPrepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .  \n\n| BANGLADESH: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress | Low |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | Low |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Tool not applicable |\n| Application of judgment | No |\n\nBangladesh remains at a low risk of external and overall debt distress. Bangladesh’s debt-carrying capacity is unchanged from the previous debt sustainability analysis (DSA) . 1 External and overall debt indicators are below their respective thresholds under the baseline. Under a standard stress test, the present value of debt-to-export ratio breaches the threshold of the external debt sustainability indicator for one period, which is automatically discounted as per the guidelines. Despite increased external borrowing projected in the near-term, favorable debt dynamics in the medium term keep the public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt-to-GDP ratio on a declining path. Risks are tilted to the downside and include continued foreign exchange (FX) pressures notwithstanding the recent exchange rate realignment, persistent inflation, increasing interest burden, revenue mobilization constraints, slowdown in major trading partners, slow implementation of macro-critical structural reforms, elevated non-performing loans (NPLs), and climate related events.  \n1 Bangladesh’s Composite Index is estimated at 2.83 and is based on IMF’s April 2024 WEO and WB’s 2022 CPIA. The debt carrying capacity remains medium.  \n1. Debt coverage used for the analysis appropriately captures Bangladesh’s debt vulnerabilities.2 The DSA covers the full stock of public debt issued by the central government, as well as debt issued by SOEs and guaranteed by the central government. IMF financial support is included in the public debt, which is provided to the Bangladesh Bank (BB) and then on lent to the central government. Local governments are not allowed to borrow and are excluded from the analysis. The authorities are working to standardize the reporting of SOE debt to cover non-guaranteed debt. This DSA is prepared on a currency basis, the difference relative to the residency basis should not materially affect the assessment.  \n2. Total public and publicly guaranteed debt in Bangladesh stood at US$166.7 billion in FY23, around 39.8 percent of GDP (Text Table 2 and Text Figure 1) .3 The majority of public debt accumulated over the last decade is domestic and denominated in local currency. In FY23, domestic debt was at 55.6 percent of PPG debt stock. Domestic debt service payments amounted to US$7 .8 billion in FY23 (1 .9 percent of GDP) . External debt was at 44.4 percent of PPG debt stock. External debt service payments in FY23 comprised of the payments to multilateral creditor of US$2 .1 billion (0 .5 percent of GDP) and bilateral creditor of US$0 .9 billion (around 0.2 percent of GDP) . Debt service payments to Paris Club and non-Paris Club creditors amounted to US$0 .5 billion and US$0 .4 billion, respectively.  \n2 Based on the authorities’ data, non-guaranteed SOE debt (outside debt coverage) is assessed to be lower than 2 percent of GDP (informing the calibrations of the contingent liability shock) and does not represent a fiscal risk based on the information available.  \n3 Fiscal year in Bangladesh starts in July and ends in June.  \n\n| .\u003Cbr> |  |  |  |  |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| Public and Publicly Guartanteed Debt\u003Cbr>(In percent of GDP) |  | Domestic Debt by Type, FY2023\u003Cbr>(In percent of total)\u003Cbr>Others including GPF 8.9\u003Cbr>Guarantees\u003Cbr>4.0 \u003Cbr>Debt from NSCs\u003Cbr>36.5\u003Cbr>Treasury bills 12.4\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Treasury bonds 36.6\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>Sukuk 1.8\u003Cbr>Source: Bangladesh authorities. |  |  |\n| 45\u003Cbr>40\u003Cbr>35\u003Cbr>30\u003Cbr>25\u003Cbr","cbCaivyz2Gaknr3q","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivyz2Gaknr3q","pdf",805118,1,20,"English","en",105,"# Risk assessment summary\n## External and overall debt distress risk\n## Stress test implications\n## Debt dynamics and key downside risks\n# Debt coverage and data scope\n## Public debt and guaranteed SOE debt\n## Currency basis and reporting notes\n# Debt stock and composition (FY2023)\n## PPG debt totals and service levels\n## Domestic and external breakdowns\n## Creditor composition and short-term vs medium-term","[{\"question\":\"What overall conclusion does the analysis reach about Bangladesh’s debt distress risk?\",\"answer\":\"The analysis finds Bangladesh remains at a low risk of external and overall debt distress. Key indicators stay below their respective thresholds under the baseline scenario.\"},{\"question\":\"Does the stress test raise any red flags?\",\"answer\":\"Yes. Under a standard stress test, the present value of the debt-to-export ratio breaches the external debt sustainability threshold for one period, which is automatically discounted according to the guidelines.\"},{\"question\":\"What factors are listed as downside risks despite improving medium-term debt dynamics?\",\"answer\":\"Risks include continued FX pressures, persistent inflation, rising interest burden, revenue mobilization constraints, slower growth in major trading partners, slow implementation of macro-critical structural reforms, elevated NPLs, and climate-related events.\"}]",1784490889,50,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"bangladesh-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-key-debt-distress-risk-summary","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/bangladesh-joint-bank-fund-debt-sustainability-analysis-key-debt-distress-risk-summary/111606/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"What overall conclusion does the analysis reach about Bangladesh’s debt distress risk?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"The analysis finds Bangladesh remains at a low risk of external and overall debt distress. Key indicators stay below their respective thresholds under the baseline scenario.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"Does the stress test raise any red flags?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"Yes. Under a standard stress test, the present value of the debt-to-export ratio breaches the external debt sustainability threshold for one period, which is automatically discounted according to the guidelines.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"What factors are listed as downside risks despite improving medium-term debt dynamics?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"Risks include continued FX pressures, persistent inflation, rising interest burden, revenue mobilization constraints, slower growth in major trading partners, slow implementation of macro-critical structural reforms, elevated NPLs, and climate-related events.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,113,118,121,125,128,132],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":28,"slug":112},6,"Technology","technology",{"id":114,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":115,"show_sort_weight":116,"slug":117},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},30,"research-report",{"id":122,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":123,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":124},9,"Religion & Spirituality","religion-spirituality",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":127},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":129,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":129,"slug":131},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":133,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":134,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":135},19,"General","general"]