[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-149046-105":59,"doc-detail-149046-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":124,"head_meta":126,"extra_data":128,"updated_unix":130},105,"en","are-natural-climate-forcings-able-to-counteract-the-projected-anthropogenic-global-warming","ARE NATURAL CLIMATE FORCINGS ABLE TO COUNTERACT THE PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING?","","A two-dimensional global climate model evaluates how climatic changes associated with new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios respond to variations in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations. Results indicate that only extremely unlikely solar and/or volcanic changes could offset simulated anthropogenic global warming across the century. However, during the next two decades, externally driven natural climate variability may blur temperature-trend interpretation and delay detection of the anthropogenic climate-change signal.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/are-natural-climate-forcings-able-to-counteract-the-projected-anthropogenic-global-warming/149046/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/are-natural-climate-forcings-able-to-counteract-the-projected-anthropogenic-global-warming/149046.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Arica Lee","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-28","2026-08-27",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",13,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What question does the study investigate about future global warming?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"It examines whether natural climate forcings—changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations—can counteract the projected anthropogenic global warming under SRES scenarios.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"What do the model results suggest about masking anthropogenic warming over the century?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"Only extremely unlikely combinations of changes in solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions could overcome the simulated anthropogenic warming throughout the century.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"How could natural variability affect detection of human-caused warming in the near term?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"In the critical next two decades, natural climate variability driven by external factors might confuse temperature-trend debates and impede detection of the anthropogenic signal.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},149046,1787790722,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":140,"language":141,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":142,"faqs":143,"seo_title":144,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":130,"read_time":145,"preview_page_count":4},8796096645457,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/800003749518d68ffe3?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1779345340919836971","ARE NATURAL CLIMATE FORCINGS ABLE TO COUNTERACT THE PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING?  \nCÉDRIC BERTRAND􀀁 , JEAN-PASCAL VAN YPERSELE and ANDRÉ BERGER  \nInstitut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître, Université catholique de Louvain, 2 Chemin du Cyclotron, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium [E-mail: Cedric.Bertrand@oma.be](E-mail: Cedric.Bertrand@oma.be)  \nAbstract. A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assess the climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.  \n1. Introduction  \nThere is general agreement that the average surface air temperature of the Earth has increased by about 0.6 ◦ C over the past century, and by about 0.2◦ to 0.3 ◦ C over the last 40 years (e.g., Jones, 1994; Parker et al., 1995) . Studies of the statistical significance of the observed global mean surface air temperature trend over the last century have detected a significant change and have shown that the observed warming trend is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin (e.g., Lane et al., 1994; Schönwiese, 1994; Thomson, 1995; Kaufmann and Stern, 1997; Houghton et al., 2001) . Further evidence comes from numerical climate simulations. They have indeed shown that accounting for human activities, that modify the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) and of tropospheric sulphates, increases the models’ ability to simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of the historical temperature record (e.g., Santer et al., 1996; Stott et al., 2000, 2001) . Both natural and anthropogenic forcings play a role in explaining the overall global warming of the last 150 years. This must be kept in mind when trying to project future climate changes resulting from human activities. They need to be set in the context of what has happened in the past.  \nAt decadal to century time scale, recent publications, (e.g., Bertrand and van Ypersele, 1999; Bertrand et al., 1999, 2002; Free and Robock, 1999; Crowley,  \n􀀁 Now at the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, 3 Avenue Circulaire, B-1180 Brussels, Belgium.  \nClimatic Change 55: 413–427, 2002 .  \n© 2002 KluwerAcademic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.  \n414 CÉDRIC BERTRAND ET AL.  \n2000) indicate clearly that volcanic and solar variability (changes in solar irradiance) have played an important role in the temperature variations of pre-industrial times. They have the potential to account for climates as cold as the Little Ice Age or as warm as the Medieval epoch. To what extent would they be able to mask the projected 21st century anthropogenic warming? This is what we intend to analyse using the 2-D LLN (Louvain-la-Neuve) climate model. Although future impacts of the Sun could be either negative or positive, only its potential cooling effect will be considered in the ‘masking’ simulations (to try counterbalancing the global warming) .  \n2. Anthropogenic Emissions Scenarios and Climate Model Description  \nUntil recently, the IPCC‘business as usual’ scenario, IS92a (Houghton et al., 1996), was the reference for model projections of future climate change. This and the other scenarios of the Second Assessment Report (SAR) have been revised for the Third Assessment Report (TAR) . The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakienovi et al., 2000) describes indeed a new set of emission scenarios for CO2 , other greenhouse gases, and sulphate. Each scenar","cbCaicEzvriMaDUp","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaicEzvriMaDUp","pdf",212324,15,"English","# Introduction\n# Anthropogenic Emissions Scenarios and Climate Model Description","[{\"question\":\"What question does the study investigate about future global warming?\",\"answer\":\"It examines whether natural climate forcings—changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations—can counteract the projected anthropogenic global warming under SRES scenarios.\"},{\"question\":\"What do the model results suggest about masking anthropogenic warming over the century?\",\"answer\":\"Only extremely unlikely combinations of changes in solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions could overcome the simulated anthropogenic warming throughout the century.\"},{\"question\":\"How could natural variability affect detection of human-caused warming in the near term?\",\"answer\":\"In the critical next two decades, natural climate variability driven by external factors might confuse temperature-trend debates and impede detection of the anthropogenic signal.\"}]","ARE NATURAL CLIMATE FORCINGS ABLE TO COUNTERACT THE PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING? | PDF",38]