[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-109860-en":3,"doc-seo-109860-105":31,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":92},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":20,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":21,"is_downloadable":21,"audit_status":21,"page_count":22,"language":23,"language_code":24,"site_id":25,"html_lang":24,"table_of_contents":26,"faqs":27,"seo_title":28,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":29,"read_time":30},109860,962075114101,"Seraphina","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/e000253a75eb197efd?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1780044092746381165",8,"Research & Report","Afghanistan - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020","Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for Afghanistan evaluates external and overall debt distress risk as high, driven by reliance on donor grants to finance fiscal and external deficits. While low debt levels and moderate mechanical indicators appear over a 10-year horizon, expected grant declines and replacement by debt financing lead to high risk under extended 20-year mechanical assessment. Downside risks include political uncertainty, violence threats, further aid shortfalls, and weather shocks. Recommendations emphasize revenue mobilization and stronger debt management, including monitoring state-owned enterprises, PPPs, export diversification, and local debt market development.","Public Disclosure Authorized  \nINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION  \nINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND  \nISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN  \nJoint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis  \nApril 2020  \nPrepared Jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA)  \nand the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Subir Lall and Gavin Gray (IMF)  \nPub lic Disc losure Authorized  \nThis debt sustainability analysis (DSA) assesses Afghanistan’s external and overall risk of debt distress as high. 1 Afghanistan’s debt sustainability depends on donor grants inflows (currently around 38 percent of GDP) to finance underlying fiscal and external deficits. Both external and public debt will remain low and mechanical signals over the 10-year horizon suggest moderate risk of debt distress. However, as grants are expected to decline over the medium and long term and be replaced by debt financing, the mechanical risk ratings based on extended 20-year periods are used. One of these—the ratio of present value of debt to exports—breaches the threshold under the baseline scenario, suggesting the high-risk rating. Political uncertainty, threat of violence, deeper than expected drop in aid, and weather shocks all provide significant downside risks. The authorities should continue improving revenue mobilization and strengthen debt management capacity, including effective monitoring of state-owned corporations (SOC) and public private partnerships (PPPs). In addition, Afghanistan should continue improving its debt carrying capacity through diversification of exports and strengthening debt management, including through local debt market development.  \n1 This joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2020 request for emergency financing from the Fund, RCF. The macro framework underlying this DSA is the same as that included in the staff report of the 2020 RCF request which reflects recent global and domestic developments . The current macroeconomic framework reflects currently available information. However, updates with respect to economic impact and policy response to the COVID-19 crisis are rapidly evolving and risks are heavily tilted to the downside.  \n\n| Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis1 |  |\n| --- | --- |\n| Risk of external debt distress: | High2 |\n| Overall risk of debt distress | High |\n| Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable |\n| Application of judgment | Yes: The projection period of informing mechanical risk signals is extended to 20 years. |\n| Macroeconomic projections | In the near and medium term, real GDP growth will be slower compared to the la st DSA due to COVID- 19 impact (average of 3.0 percent in\u003Cbr>2020–25 compared to 3.7 in 2019–24 from the last DSA), and primary deficits will be larger (average of 1.1 percent compared to 0 in the above-mentioned periods). Revenue loss is the key driver of the higher deficits.\u003Cbr>In the long run, there will be slower real GDP growth (4.0 percent compared to 4.5 percent); lower grants\u003Cbr>(4.2 percent compared to 6.7 percent of GDP) and expenditure (23.6 percent compared to 26 percent of GDP) than in the previous DSA.3\u003Cbr>Debt relief under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) is reflected in the exceptional financing line in Table 1 and in the debt relief (HIPCand other) line in Table 2. |\n| Financing strategy | In the near term, larger deficits will be financed partially by official support plus the government using its deposits at the central bank. In the medium and long term, declining grants will be replaced by external concessional loans with 35 percent grant element. |\n| Realism tools flagged |  |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Moderate |\n| Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | Moderate |\n| 1 Debt coverage is the same as in the previous DSA which includes central government and central bank borrowing ","cbCaivfxdwYqq44u","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaivfxdwYqq44u","pdf",590553,3,1,10,"English","en",105,"# Key findings and risk assessment\n## Baseline ratings and mechanical signals\n## Downside risks and judgment\n# Macroeconomic projections and financing strategy\n## Growth, deficits, and grant outlook\n## External financing instruments and terms\n# Debt sustainability framework\n## External debt sustainability baseline scenario (2017–40)","[{\"question\":\"How does the analysis determine Afghanistan’s debt distress risk level?\",\"answer\":\"It assesses both external and overall debt distress risk using mechanical signals alongside judgment. Under the baseline, the present value of debt to exports breaches the relevant threshold when assessed over an extended 20-year horizon, leading to a high-risk rating.\"},{\"question\":\"Why is the risk rating higher under the extended 20-year mechanical framework?\",\"answer\":\"Grant inflows are expected to decline over the medium and long term and be replaced by debt financing. This shift changes the mechanical indicators based on longer projection periods, which results in threshold breaches.\"},{\"question\":\"What downside risks could worsen debt sustainability beyond the baseline?\",\"answer\":\"The DSA highlights political uncertainty, threats of violence, deeper-than-expected aid declines, and weather shocks as significant downside risks that can intensify debt distress.\"}]","Afghanistan - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - April 2020 | PDF",1784482734,25,{"code":4,"msg":32,"data":33},"ok",{"site_id":25,"language":24,"slug":34,"title":13,"keywords":35,"description":14,"schema_data":36,"social_meta":87,"head_meta":89,"extra_data":91,"updated_unix":29},"afghanistan-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020","",{"@graph":37,"@context":86},[38,54,69],{"@type":39,"itemListElement":40},"BreadcrumbList",[41,45,49,51],{"item":42,"name":43,"@type":44,"position":21},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":46,"name":47,"@type":44,"position":48},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":50,"name":12,"@type":44,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",{"item":52,"name":13,"@type":44,"position":53},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/afghanistan-joint-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-analysis-april-2020/109860/",4,{"url":52,"name":13,"@type":55,"author":56,"headline":13,"publisher":58,"fileFormat":61,"inLanguage":24,"description":14,"dateModified":62,"datePublished":63,"encodingFormat":61,"isAccessibleForFree":64,"interactionStatistic":65},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":57},"Person",{"url":42,"name":59,"@type":60},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-29","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":66,"interactionType":67,"userInteractionCount":20},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":68},"ViewAction",{"@type":70,"mainEntity":71},"FAQPage",[72,78,82],{"name":73,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":75},"How does the analysis determine Afghanistan’s debt distress risk level?","Question",{"text":76,"@type":77},"It assesses both external and overall debt distress risk using mechanical signals alongside judgment. Under the baseline, the present value of debt to exports breaches the relevant threshold when assessed over an extended 20-year horizon, leading to a high-risk rating.","Answer",{"name":79,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":80},"Why is the risk rating higher under the extended 20-year mechanical framework?",{"text":81,"@type":77},"Grant inflows are expected to decline over the medium and long term and be replaced by debt financing. This shift changes the mechanical indicators based on longer projection periods, which results in threshold breaches.",{"name":83,"@type":74,"acceptedAnswer":84},"What downside risks could worsen debt sustainability beyond the baseline?",{"text":85,"@type":77},"The DSA highlights political uncertainty, threats of violence, deeper-than-expected aid declines, and weather shocks as significant downside risks that can intensify debt distress.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":52,"og:type":88,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":59,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":90,"canonical":52},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":25},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":93},[94,98,102,106,111,116,121,124,129,132,135],{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":95,"show_sort_weight":96,"slug":97},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":48,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":99,"show_sort_weight":100,"slug":101},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":53,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":113,"show_sort_weight":114,"slug":115},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":118,"show_sort_weight":119,"slug":120},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":122,"slug":123},30,"research-report",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":126,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":128},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":130,"show_sort_weight":127,"slug":131},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":133,"show_sort_weight":22,"slug":134},"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":136,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":47,"category_name":137,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":138},19,"General","general"]