[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":3,"doc-seo-324454-105":59,"doc-detail-324454-en":131},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",[7,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,51,55],{"id":8,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":10,"show_sort_weight":11,"slug":12},1,"Document","Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":14,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":15,"show_sort_weight":16,"slug":17},2,"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":19,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":20,"show_sort_weight":21,"slug":22},4,"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":24,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":25,"show_sort_weight":26,"slug":27},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":29,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":30,"show_sort_weight":31,"slug":32},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":34,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":35,"show_sort_weight":36,"slug":37},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":39,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":40,"show_sort_weight":41,"slug":42},8,"Research & Report",30,"research-report",{"id":44,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":45,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":47},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":49,"show_sort_weight":46,"slug":50},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":53,"show_sort_weight":52,"slug":54},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":56,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":9,"category_name":57,"show_sort_weight":24,"slug":58},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":60,"data":61},"ok",{"site_id":62,"language":63,"slug":64,"title":65,"keywords":66,"description":67,"schema_data":68,"social_meta":124,"head_meta":126,"extra_data":128,"updated_unix":130},105,"en","accounting-for-the-jobless-recoveries-economic-commentary","Accounting for the Jobless Recoveries - Economic Commentary","","This Economic Commentary examines the causes behind the “jobless recovery” pattern seen in the past two business cycles, focusing on employment dynamics during expansion. It analyzes two key probabilities: job finding and job separation, using monthly employment and unemployment data. A core approach infers job-finding rates via changes in the number of unemployed and employment spell durations reported by the BLS. Findings contrast 1990-91, where job finding stayed low, with 2001, where job separation rose only modestly.",{"@graph":69,"@context":123},[70,84,106],{"@type":71,"itemListElement":72},"BreadcrumbList",[73,77,79,82],{"item":74,"name":75,"@type":76,"position":8},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":78,"name":9,"@type":76,"position":14},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/",{"item":80,"name":40,"@type":76,"position":81},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":83,"name":65,"@type":76,"position":19},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/accounting-for-the-jobless-recoveries-economic-commentary/324454/",{"url":83,"name":65,"@type":85,"image":86,"author":91,"headline":65,"publisher":94,"fileFormat":97,"inLanguage":63,"description":67,"dateModified":98,"datePublished":99,"encodingFormat":97,"isAccessibleForFree":100,"interactionStatistic":101},"DigitalDocument",{"url":87,"@type":88,"width":89,"height":90},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/accounting-for-the-jobless-recoveries-economic-commentary/324454.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":92,"@type":93},"Himbo","Person",{"url":74,"name":95,"@type":96},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-28","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":102,"interactionType":103,"userInteractionCount":105},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":104},"ViewAction",13,{"@type":107,"mainEntity":108},"FAQPage",[109,115,119],{"name":110,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":112},"What does “jobless recovery” mean in this Economic Commentary?","Question",{"text":113,"@type":114},"It refers to an expansion phase where employment growth is unusually weak compared with typical business-cycle recoveries.","Answer",{"name":116,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":117},"Which two measures does the Commentary focus on to explain jobless recoveries?",{"text":118,"@type":114},"It focuses on the probabilities of job finding and job separation.",{"name":120,"@type":111,"acceptedAnswer":121},"How does the Commentary infer the aggregate job-finding probability?",{"text":122,"@type":114},"It infers job finding by using month-to-month changes in the number of unemployed, together with BLS-reported unemployment duration information for people unemployed for roughly one month or less.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":83,"og:type":125,"og:title":65,"og:site_name":95,"og:description":67},"article",{"robots":127,"canonical":83},"index,follow",{"doc_id":129,"site_id":62},324454,1790797109,{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":132},{"doc_id":129,"user_id":133,"nickname":92,"user_avatar":134,"doc_module":4,"category_id":39,"category_name":40,"doc_title":65,"doc_description":67,"doc_content":135,"file_id":136,"file_url":137,"file_type":138,"file_size":139,"view_count":105,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":8,"is_downloadable":8,"audit_status":8,"page_count":24,"language":140,"language_code":63,"site_id":62,"html_lang":63,"table_of_contents":141,"faqs":142,"seo_title":143,"seo_description":67,"update_tm":144,"read_time":105,"preview_page_count":4},687197100911,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/a000239b6f1da00475?x-image-process=image/resize,m_fixed,w_180,h_180&k=1785132997149421697","August 1,2005  \n# Accounting for the Jobless Recoveries\n\nby Paul Gomme  \nMuch has been made of the so-calledjobless recovery of the past twebusiness eycles—that is,their atypi-cally weak employment growthearly in the expansion phase.ThisCommentary examines the factors thataccount for this behavior,focusing ontwo key measures:the probabilities ofjob finding and job separation.  \nby the number of people unemployed.Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS)reports the number of peopleemployed and unemployed,it does notreport the number of job finders.  \nThere is a roundabout way to infer theaggregate job-finding probability thatinvolves looking at changes over time inthe number of people who are unem-ployed.The number of people unem-ployed in December,for example,isequal to the number of pcople unem-ployed in November,less those whofoundjobs,plus those who were newlyunemployed(see figure 2).This relation-ship is useful because the BLS reportsnot only the total number of peopleunemployed in agiven month,but alsothe number of individuals who havebeen unemployed for roughly one monthor less.²In other words,the BLS reportsa figure that is approximately the num-ber of people who became unemployedin a given month.Although the BLSfigure does not exactly match the oneneeded for the calculation above—itomits some individuals who have shortunemployment spells(for example,aworker who is employed at two consecu-tive survey dates but who was unem-ployed at some time between these  \nAAcurious phenomenonof the last twobusiness cycles is their weak employ-ment growth early in the expansionphase,a trend widely referred to as the\"jobless recovery.\"In a typical businesscycle,employment falls in the monthsimmediately following the peak whenthe economy is in recession(see figure  \n1.'Employment eventually begins togrow again and,by 18months after thebusiness eycle peak,has regained theemployment lost during the recession.Following the 1990-91 recession,how-ever,it was nearly 30 months beforeemployment recovered to its peak dur-ing the previous cycle.A similar patternwas observed during the 2001 reces-sion—in fact,the only business cycle tohave worse net employment creationwas the 1980 recession,which wasquickly followed quickly by anotherrecession in 1981-82.This leads us toask,what factors caused the atypicalbehavior of net job creation over the lasttwo recoveries?  \nThis Economic Commentary takes a pre-liminary step toward understandingemployment dynamics over the businesscycle,emphasizing the factors that madethe last two recessions and recoveriesdifferent.Employment from one monthto the next will differ because of flowsinto and out of employment.Flows intoemployment are called job finding;flows out of employment are refered toas job separations.The aggregate proba-bilityof jobfinding and job separationcan becalculated from monthlydataonthe level of employment and unemploy-ment.Here,we will look at the cyclicalbehavior of these probabilities in thepostwar U.S.economy.  \nKnowingwhether the two recent joblessrecoveries were driven by differences in  \njob-finding orjob-scparation probabilitieswillhelp us to understand the overallemployment dynamics over theseepisodes.In particular,knowing which ofthese factors is most important in account-ing for the jobless recoveries can tell uswhere future research should be focused.  \nThe 1990-9I recession was marked by ajob-finding probability that remainedlow well after the recession had offi-cially ended.The job-separation proba-bility,on the other hand,was similar toprevious recessions.Thereforeinaccounting for the first jobless recovery,we should focus on the underlyingcausesof jobfinding,such as recruitingactivity by firms,the job-search effortsof the unemployed,and the matching offirms seking workers with individualsseekingemployment.  \nDuring the 2001 recession and subse-quent recovery,the job-finding probabil-ity mirrored the 1990-91 recession.Butmovements in the job-separation proba-bilitywere much di","cbCaibakXVEhzRZR","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaibakXVEhzRZR","pdf",1112161,"English","# Introduction\n## Jobless Recoveries and Employment Growth\n# Job Flows and Key Probabilities\n## Inferring Job-Finding Probability\n## Job-Separation Explanation\n# Job-Finding Probability Results","[{\"question\":\"What does “jobless recovery” mean in this Economic Commentary?\",\"answer\":\"It refers to an expansion phase where employment growth is unusually weak compared with typical business-cycle recoveries.\"},{\"question\":\"Which two measures does the Commentary focus on to explain jobless recoveries?\",\"answer\":\"It focuses on the probabilities of job finding and job separation.\"},{\"question\":\"How does the Commentary infer the aggregate job-finding probability?\",\"answer\":\"It infers job finding by using month-to-month changes in the number of unemployed, together with BLS-reported unemployment duration information for people unemployed for roughly one month or less.\"}]","Accounting for the Jobless Recoveries - Economic Commentary | PDF",1789967979]