[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-detail-113307-en":3,"doc-seo-113307-105":29,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":90},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"success",{"doc_id":7,"user_id":8,"nickname":9,"user_avatar":10,"doc_module":4,"category_id":11,"category_name":12,"doc_title":13,"doc_description":14,"doc_content":15,"file_id":16,"file_url":17,"file_type":18,"file_size":19,"view_count":4,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":20,"is_downloadable":20,"audit_status":20,"page_count":21,"language":22,"language_code":23,"site_id":24,"html_lang":23,"table_of_contents":25,"faqs":26,"seo_title":13,"seo_description":14,"update_tm":27,"read_time":28},113307,1099514068035,"Ezra","https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/davatar_276721f389ce27ea32af1340a28f341c",8,"Research & Report","A Tale of Two Programs - Assessing Treatment and Control in NREGA Studies","This article revisits impact evaluation studies on the largest public workfare in the world, NREGA, in contexts where randomization is infeasible. It argues that analysts must account for an older program, SGRY, because SGRY’s continued presence in control districts affects estimated general equilibrium impacts. Using novel district-level expenditure data, the study shows that ignoring SGRY likely underestimates NREGA impacts by 30–40% across multiple socioeconomic outcomes.","Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized  \nThe World Bank Economic Review, 36(2), 2022, 514–532  \n[https://doi.org10.1093/wber/lhab019](https://doi.org10.1093/wber/lhab019)  \nArticle  \nA Tale of Two Programs: Assessing Treatment and Control in NREGA Studies  \nGirish Bahal  \nAbstract  \nThis article revisits impact evaluation studies on the largest public workfare in the world, NREGA. In an environment where randomization is not feasible, I show why an impact evaluation exercise on NREGA should acknowledge the existence of an older program, SGRY. Using novel district-level expenditure data on SGRY, this article shows how ignoring the older program is likely to underestimate the general equilibrium impact of the employment policy on various relevant socioeconomic outcomes. In most cases, ignoring SGRY underestimates NREGA’s impact by 30–40 percent.  \nJEL classification: H53, I38, J38  \nKeywords: impact evaluation, treatment-control, public workfares, SGRY, NREGA  \n1. Introduction  \nOften, similar older policy initiatives precede “new” antipoverty programs implemented by governments across the world. For example, Brazil’s flagship antipoverty program Bolsa Escola, a conditional cash transfer program, was replaced with Bolsa Familia in 2003 . In 2011, Bolsa Familia was extended to Brasil Sem Miséria (Brazil without poverty) . In Mexico, Prospera was preceded by Oportunidades, which in turn was built on Progresa. Similarly, when India introduced the largest public works program in the world in 2006—the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (henceforth NREGA)—it replaced an older program—Sampoorna Grameen Rozgar Yojana (henceforth SGRY) . Such government interventions naturally raise important questions for research and policy. In an environment where randomization isnot feasible, quasi-experimental pretest–posttest designs often identify the impact of a change in economic policy. For example, a difference-in-differences model identifies the policy impact by comparing the average change over time in the outcome variable in the treatment and control groups.  \nGirish Bahal is Assistant Professor at the Business School, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia; his email address [is girish.bahal@gmail.com. The](is girish.bahal@gmail.com. The) author is very grateful to the editor in charge of this article, Eric Edmonds, and three anonymous referees for thoughtful and constructive comments. The author thanks Toke Aidt, Tiago Cavalcanti, Giancarlo Corsetti, Douglas Gollin, Rema Hanna, Clément Imbert, Sriya Iyer, Michael Jetter, Kaivan Munshi, Anand Shrivastava, Laura Zimmermann, and seminar participants at the University of Cambridge, Delhi School of Economics, Indian Statistical Institute Delhi, and International Association for Applied Econometrics for helpful comments and suggestions. The author also thanks Thiemo Fetzer for sharing TRMM rainfall data and Manisha Shah and Bryce Millett Steinberg for sharing data and codes for their study on NREGA’s impact on human capital outcomes. Finally, the author gratefully acknowledges the Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India, for help in data collection. A supplementary online appendix is available with this article at The World Bank Economic Review website.  \n© The Author(s) 2021 . Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK.  \nAll rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [journals.permissions@oup.com](journals.permissions@oup.com)  \nDownloaded from [https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/36/2/514/6364496 by LEGVP Law Library user on 08 December 2023](https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/36/2/514/6364496 by LEGVP Law Library user on 08 December 2023)  \nThis article highlights an important aspect of impact evaluation studies on NREGA. While estimating the general equilibrium impact of the program, it is crucial to control for a similar older workfare that was exclu","cbCailFVtt7P8xuy","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCailFVtt7P8xuy","pdf",630691,1,19,"English","en",105,"# Introduction\n## Motivation: older programs before “new” antipoverty policies\n## Core identification challenge: treatment vs control without randomization\n## Program focus and outcomes studied\n## Data and empirical patterns (SGRY and NREGA timing)","[{\"question\":\"Why must impact evaluations of NREGA account for the older program SGRY?\",\"answer\":\"Because SGRY continued to exist in control districts when NREGA was rolled out, ignoring it changes the counterfactual. This creates first-order bias in estimating employment policy impacts.\"},{\"question\":\"What does the article show about bias when SGRY is ignored?\",\"answer\":\"In most cases, ignoring SGRY underestimates NREGA’s impact by about 30–40%. It also overestimates the employment gap (treatment dosage) between treatment and control districts.\"},{\"question\":\"Which outcomes are analyzed for NREGA’s general equilibrium impact?\",\"answer\":\"The study examines agricultural wages, casual earnings, casual employment in public and private labor markets by gender, and human capital outcomes such as children’s school enrollment and child labor.\"}]",1784502466,48,{"code":4,"msg":30,"data":31},"ok",{"site_id":24,"language":23,"slug":32,"title":13,"keywords":33,"description":14,"schema_data":34,"social_meta":85,"head_meta":87,"extra_data":89,"updated_unix":27},"a-tale-of-two-programs-assessing-treatment-and-control-in-nrega-studies","",{"@graph":35,"@context":84},[36,53,67],{"@type":37,"itemListElement":38},"BreadcrumbList",[39,43,47,50],{"item":40,"name":41,"@type":42,"position":20},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",{"item":44,"name":45,"@type":42,"position":46},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":48,"name":12,"@type":42,"position":49},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/",3,{"item":51,"name":13,"@type":42,"position":52},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/a-tale-of-two-programs-assessing-treatment-and-control-in-nrega-studies/113307/",4,{"url":51,"name":13,"@type":54,"author":55,"headline":13,"publisher":57,"fileFormat":60,"inLanguage":23,"description":14,"dateModified":61,"datePublished":61,"encodingFormat":60,"isAccessibleForFree":62,"interactionStatistic":63},"DigitalDocument",{"name":9,"@type":56},"Person",{"url":40,"name":58,"@type":59},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-07-19",true,{"@type":64,"interactionType":65,"userInteractionCount":4},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":66},"ViewAction",{"@type":68,"mainEntity":69},"FAQPage",[70,76,80],{"name":71,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":73},"Why must impact evaluations of NREGA account for the older program SGRY?","Question",{"text":74,"@type":75},"Because SGRY continued to exist in control districts when NREGA was rolled out, ignoring it changes the counterfactual. This creates first-order bias in estimating employment policy impacts.","Answer",{"name":77,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":78},"What does the article show about bias when SGRY is ignored?",{"text":79,"@type":75},"In most cases, ignoring SGRY underestimates NREGA’s impact by about 30–40%. It also overestimates the employment gap (treatment dosage) between treatment and control districts.",{"name":81,"@type":72,"acceptedAnswer":82},"Which outcomes are analyzed for NREGA’s general equilibrium impact?",{"text":83,"@type":75},"The study examines agricultural wages, casual earnings, casual employment in public and private labor markets by gender, and human capital outcomes such as children’s school enrollment and child labor.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":51,"og:type":86,"og:title":13,"og:site_name":58,"og:description":14},"article",{"robots":88,"canonical":51},"index,follow",{"doc_id":7,"site_id":24},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":91},[92,96,100,104,109,114,119,122,127,130,134],{"id":20,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":46,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":97,"show_sort_weight":98,"slug":99},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":52,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":101,"show_sort_weight":102,"slug":103},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":105,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":106,"show_sort_weight":107,"slug":108},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":110,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":111,"show_sort_weight":112,"slug":113},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":115,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":11,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":12,"show_sort_weight":120,"slug":121},30,"research-report",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":126},9,"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":125,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":125,"slug":129},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":131,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":132,"show_sort_weight":131,"slug":133},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":21,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":45,"category_name":135,"show_sort_weight":105,"slug":136},"General","general"]