[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-seo-325359-105":3,"detail-sidebar-cat-0-en-105":81,"doc-detail-325359-en":130},{"code":4,"msg":5,"data":6},0,"ok",{"site_id":7,"language":8,"slug":9,"title":10,"keywords":11,"description":12,"schema_data":13,"social_meta":74,"head_meta":76,"extra_data":78,"updated_unix":80},105,"en","1991-outlook-mild-recession-mild-recovery","1991 Outlook: Mild Recession, Mild Recovery","","Analysis of economic projections from the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable meeting at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland highlights a contraction beginning in late 1990 and expectations for a brief downturn. Key drivers are evaluated, including an oil price shock and war-related uncertainty in the Persian Gulf, with conditions emphasizing uninterrupted crude oil supplies. Forecasts anticipate mild recovery in the second half of 1991, moderated inflation, and gradual interest-rate reductions, with measured declines and rebounds in real GNP across 1990–1992.",{"@graph":14,"@context":73},[15,34,56],{"@type":16,"itemListElement":17},"BreadcrumbList",[18,23,27,31],{"item":19,"name":20,"@type":21,"position":22},"https://docshare.wps.com","Home","ListItem",1,{"item":24,"name":25,"@type":21,"position":26},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/","Document",2,{"item":28,"name":29,"@type":21,"position":30},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/research-report/","Research & Report",3,{"item":32,"name":10,"@type":21,"position":33},"https://docshare.wps.com/document/1991-outlook-mild-recession-mild-recovery/325359/",4,{"url":32,"name":10,"@type":35,"image":36,"author":41,"headline":10,"publisher":44,"fileFormat":47,"inLanguage":8,"description":12,"dateModified":48,"datePublished":49,"encodingFormat":47,"isAccessibleForFree":50,"interactionStatistic":51},"DigitalDocument",{"url":37,"@type":38,"width":39,"height":40},"https://docshare.wps.com/thumbnails/1991-outlook-mild-recession-mild-recovery/325359.png","ImageObject",300,407,{"name":42,"@type":43},"Hazel","Person",{"url":19,"name":45,"@type":46},"DocShare","Organization","application/pdf","2026-10-27","2026-09-21",true,{"@type":52,"interactionType":53,"userInteractionCount":55},"InteractionCounter",{"@type":54},"ViewAction",9,{"@type":57,"mainEntity":58},"FAQPage",[59,65,69],{"name":60,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":62},"What do the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable expect for the 1991 contraction and recovery?","Question",{"text":63,"@type":64},"They expect the current contraction to be brief and that economic growth will resume by mid-year, with a mild recovery in the second half of 1991.","Answer",{"name":66,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":67},"What are the main explanations for the decline in economic activity?",{"text":68,"@type":64},"Economists point to an oil price shock last August and, alternatively, concerns about the prospects of war in the Middle East leading to spending cutbacks.",{"name":70,"@type":61,"acceptedAnswer":71},"How could disruptions in crude oil supplies change the economic outlook?",{"text":72,"@type":64},"If oil supplies are disrupted, crude oil prices and inflation would surge, consumer spending would decline, and business investment would eventually fall, deepening the contraction.","https://schema.org",{"og:url":32,"og:type":75,"og:title":10,"og:site_name":45,"og:description":12},"article",{"robots":77,"canonical":32},"index,follow",{"doc_id":79,"site_id":7},325359,1790501015,{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":83},"success",[84,88,92,96,101,106,111,115,119,122,126],{"id":22,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":85,"show_sort_weight":86,"slug":87},"Story & Novel",90,"story-novel",{"id":26,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":89,"show_sort_weight":90,"slug":91},"Literature",80,"literature",{"id":33,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":93,"show_sort_weight":94,"slug":95},"Exam",70,"exam",{"id":97,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":98,"show_sort_weight":99,"slug":100},5,"Comic",60,"comic",{"id":102,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":103,"show_sort_weight":104,"slug":105},6,"Technology",50,"technology",{"id":107,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":108,"show_sort_weight":109,"slug":110},7,"Healthcare",40,"healthcare",{"id":112,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":29,"show_sort_weight":113,"slug":114},8,30,"research-report",{"id":55,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":116,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":118},"Religion & Spirituality",20,"religion-spirituality",{"id":117,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":120,"show_sort_weight":117,"slug":121},"World Cup","world-cup",{"id":123,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":124,"show_sort_weight":123,"slug":125},10,"Lifestyle","lifestyle",{"id":127,"doc_module":4,"doc_module_name":25,"category_name":128,"show_sort_weight":97,"slug":129},19,"General","general",{"code":4,"msg":82,"data":131},{"doc_id":79,"user_id":132,"nickname":42,"user_avatar":133,"doc_module":4,"category_id":112,"category_name":29,"doc_title":10,"doc_description":12,"doc_content":134,"file_id":135,"file_url":136,"file_type":137,"file_size":138,"view_count":55,"is_deleted":4,"is_public":22,"is_downloadable":22,"audit_status":22,"page_count":97,"language":139,"language_code":8,"site_id":7,"html_lang":8,"table_of_contents":140,"faqs":141,"seo_title":142,"seo_description":12,"update_tm":143,"read_time":144,"preview_page_count":4},137441390410,"https://ap-avatar.wpscdn.com/avatar/2000252f4ab5702993?_k=1776741390130283984","by John J.Erceg  \nIhe U.S.economy has been buffetedin the past few months by uncertaintiessurrounding the Persian Gulf War and itseffects on crude oil supplies and by astrained financial sector domestically.Though these factors can make short-term economic forecasts highly unpre-dictable,members of the Fourth DistrictEconomists'Roundtable,who metJanuary 18 at the Federal Reserve Bankof Cleveland,project that the current con-traction will be brief and that economicgrowth will resume by mid-year  \nThe Roundtable economists acknowl-edge that a contraction in economic ac-tivity began in the fourth quarter of1990,but have different views on whatcaused the decline.They concur,how-ever,that a brief war in the Middle Eastis not expected to either deepen or pro-long the present economic downturn,as long as crude oil supplies are not dis-rupted.The economists also predictthat a mild recovery will ensue by thesecond half of 1991,against a backdropof a gradual reduction in interest ratesand a lower inflation rate.  \n# ■ The Oil Price Enigma\n\nSome of the Roundtable economists as-sert that the oil price shock last Augustis the prime culprit in the current eco-nomic decline,as it led to severe erosionin consumer and business confidenceand spending.Another explanation isthat concem about the prospects of warin the Middle East was a primary factorthat generated spending cutbacks,and  \n# 1991 Outlook:Mild Recession,Mild Recovery\n\nthat consumer and business outlays willrevive as some of the uncertainties areresolved.According to one economist,the shock to consumer confidence wassimilar to that of early 1980,when theannouncement ofcredit controls resultedin a sudden and sharp cutback in spend-ing and real GNP.Confidence was re-stored when credit controls were liftedin mid-1980,spending subsequentlyrebounded,and the brief six-monthrecession ended.  \nThe Roundtable panel apparentlybelieves that a short war in the PersianGulf is unlikely to have much of a nega-tive effect on the economy,assumingthat oi supplies,particularly from SaudiArabia,are not disrupted.In this event,the price of crude oil would likely hoveraround its long-run price of about $20per barrel,according to one economist.Supplies are judged to be plentiful be-cause of higher output by Saudi Arabiaand other oil producers that more thancompensates for the embargo on oilexports from Iraq and Kuwait.  \nIfoil supplies do become disrupted,however,the economists predict thatcrude oil prices and inflation wouldsurge and that consumer spending andeventually business investment woulddecline,serving to deepen the contrac-tion.It is the fearof future supply dis-ruptions that accounts for last year'swide swings in the spot and futuresprices.As that fear waned,crude oilprices fellto a recent average of about  \nFebruary 1,1991  \nForecasters who attended the FourthDistrict Economists'Roundtablemeeting two days after the outbreakof war in the Persian Gulf last monthwere generally optimistic about thepotential economic effects of the con-flict.The economists believe that aslong as oil supplies remain adequate,a brief war should have minimal im-pact on the current economic contrac-tion,and predict that mild growth inoutput should resume in the secondhalf of the year.  \n$20 per barrel,from an average high ofabout S40 per barrel early last fall.  \n# ■ Contraction and Recovery\n\nMembers of the Roundtable believe thatthe worst of the contraction in real GNPwas in 1990:IVQ and that after a milddecline in 1991:IQ,growth of the econ-omy will resume by mid-year.Real GNPwas estimated to have declined at a 2.6percent annual rate last quarter,accord-ing to the median of 27 forecasters atthe meeting (table 1).'Another declineat a 1.5 percent annua rate is expectedfor this quarter,and after a flat 1991:IQreal GNPgrowth is predicted to reboundto a2.7 percent annual rate in the sec-ond half of the year and to nearly a 3percent rate in the first half of 1992.  \nAccordingto the median projection ofthe group,the current ","cbCaiaiwy5rJkVjD","https://ap.wps.com/l/cbCaiaiwy5rJkVjD","pdf",1245283,"English","# The Oil Price Enigma\n# 1991 Outlook: Mild Recession, Mild Recovery\n## Contraction and Recovery","[{\"question\":\"What do the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable expect for the 1991 contraction and recovery?\",\"answer\":\"They expect the current contraction to be brief and that economic growth will resume by mid-year, with a mild recovery in the second half of 1991.\"},{\"question\":\"What are the main explanations for the decline in economic activity?\",\"answer\":\"Economists point to an oil price shock last August and, alternatively, concerns about the prospects of war in the Middle East leading to spending cutbacks.\"},{\"question\":\"How could disruptions in crude oil supplies change the economic outlook?\",\"answer\":\"If oil supplies are disrupted, crude oil prices and inflation would surge, consumer spending would decline, and business investment would eventually fall, deepening the contraction.\"}]","1991 Outlook: Mild Recession, Mild Recovery | PDF",1789970324,13]